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Shorts are gettin' busy

Short interest is up by...hold for it...588% since the beginning of the year. 
If you don't believe me, check my math from the NASDAQ table below. Total short shares was 1.65 in January, and last report is coming in at 11.4m shares. That's about a 7 fold increase in shorty has made...betting against us for the last 11 months.

Ok, now, so what??

What this means is that in the short run, we might are and may continue to be facing rough seas. Get ready to throw up every day or two.  We lost nearly 30% over the last 30 days (today we're up, thank God), but things are rocky...just in case you haven't noticed.  And given the massive, 7 fold increase in short interest, they might stay rocky....or just go down (like they have taken ADXS down to 3...from 8).  Let me say that again. We might actually see AUPH at 3, in the short term, because shorty wants to bring us down, down down - and the 11.4 MILLION short shares are evidence of that. So, set your expectations. The short te…
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Roller Coaster

You probably feel nauseous right now.
And you will likely feel this way for the next year, or longer, if you continue to hold AUPH. This is not a feel good stock you can just pat on the head every now and then and know that your equity is safe and steadily growing. Because it won't.

This is going to be a sickening roller coaster ride where up is down, and down is up...where we fall steeply on good clinical news, and shoot back up for no reason at all.  And if you're overweight  in AUPH, as many of us are, then nausea is your new normal.

Some of us idiots have done this before, making crazy bets on ARIA and not sleeping well for two years, making your wife think that ARIA is a secret lover, and not a biotech equity.  Let's be clear, this is not going to make sense and you WILL be sick.

It can not be otherwise if you have a big bet on AUPH.

So all that said, no whining when we plunge for no reason. You are going on this ride, like me, with eyes wide open.

And when we are so…

ADXS @26: Minimum BO Price

This a first in a series to stimulate discussion about ADXS BO price. First let's look at the market for ADXS first platform,( HPV related cancers. (Note: there are four total platforms, so we're only considering a quarter of their total IP here). 

1. How many people are we talking about?39,844 newHPV associated cancers are diagnosed every year, according to the CDC.

2. Market share assumption now assume that (low end) 10% of these cases are treated with ADXS LM related therapy, that comes to 3,984 cases per year IN THE US. So, if you assume a cost of $50,000 per treatment, that comes to about $200m in the US. now consider

3.  Now add in Europe and Japan
Europe  has a total Population of 508m people;  and Japan with a population of 127 people,Using the "prevalence" (new cases) figure of 12.5 per 100,000 (the basis for the CDC calculation), you get: 63,500 cases Europe, and 15,875 cases in Japan. 10% of these comes to 6530 and 1,588 respectively - for a total of 7,938 cas…

Check out ADXS

It's worth taking a look at ADXS.

The stock is at a 52 week low as a result, so says the rumor mill, of a well coordinated short attck.  It lost over 40% of its market cap in a matter of days without any material news or events, either good or bad.  Additionally, the board booted the CEO that wanted to go it alone and replaced him, months ago, with an  "interim" CEO that is on loan form a firm that specialises in health sector mergers and acquisitions...any of this sound familiar, Ariad fans?  Making matters more interesting is solid science, a diversified pipeline with four major franchises, and partnerships with four of the six major biotech firms (including Amgen). 
My reading of the tea leaves is that they will sell the company in the next three to six months, a year at most for around $1b, or about $21 pps. This is pocket change for Big Pharmas that are hungry for new products as older lines go off patent or are replaced by innovations, particularly in the genetic …

The art of forgetting

Forget AUPH. 
Really.  Just forget it.  Get busy with pottery, or gardening, or take a bike ride. But forget you own this stock, because if you don't you might start trying to trade the waves, or maybe sell and buy something shiny. And you'd regret that, when the rest of us are overjoyed when we wakeup one fine morning when the company has been sold at $40 per share.

So just forget about it.

TC