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Shorts are gettin' busy

Short interest is up by...hold for it...588% since the beginning of the year. 


If you don't believe me, check my math from the NASDAQ table below. Total short shares was 1.65 in January, and last report is coming in at 11.4m shares. That's about a 7 fold increase in shorty has made...betting against us for the last 11 months.

Ok, now, so what??

What this means is that in the short run, we might are and may continue to be facing rough seas. Get ready to throw up every day or two.  We lost nearly 30% over the last 30 days (today we're up, thank God), but things are rocky...just in case you haven't noticed.  And given the massive, 7 fold increase in short interest, they might stay rocky....or just go down (like they have taken ADXS down to 3...from 8).  Let me say that again. We might actually see AUPH at 3, in the short term, because shorty wants to bring us down, down down - and the 11.4 MILLION short shares are evidence of that. So, set your expectations. The short term might really, really suck.

But then, why are you here?  If you're here for a quick return, a company sale in the next 3 months at 25...STOP READING THIS BLOG AND SELL!!  Seriously, this is a long game. We've only just started a Phase III trial, so there are no products for sale. There's no information coming out anytime soon. There are just games - and these games are excruciating, just terrifying if you have a large portion of your unbalanced portfolio in AUPH.  Long term, well, that's another story. It does look like Voclosporin is going to work for a bunch of indications, and it's not crazy to expect the company to get sold at 50 (I've run these numbers and posted them publicly).

So ask yourself - do you mind being seasick for a year, or more?

GLTA

TC


10/31/201711,398,7451,861,0506.124900


1/13/20171,654,835968,9651.707838

Comments

  1. pwqNovember 20, 2017 at 5:47 AM

    It feels as though your confidence is shook. And that scares me more than the shorts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trading CyclistNovember 20, 2017 at 5:56 AM

      My confidence has not been shaken, except for the short term. I'm just trying to set realistic expectations for the next 12 months so I hang on for the ride. This is going to take some time.

      Delete
  2. NeilNovember 21, 2017 at 1:27 PM

    12 months from now we should have FSGS/MCD interim P2 data, P2 VOS tolerability data (and hopefully monetization of that asset or plan for same) and initiation of rolling NDA for voclosporin for LN.

    I would say that we have many good things to look forward to in the short term. If these turn out positive, 8s in 11/18 seems a reasonable expectation to me.

    ReplyDelete

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