Skip to main content

Check out ADXS

It's worth taking a look at ADXS.

The stock is at a 52 week low as a result, so says the rumor mill, of a well coordinated short attck.  It lost over 40% of its market cap in a matter of days without any material news or events, either good or bad.  Additionally, the board booted the CEO that wanted to go it alone and replaced him, months ago, with an  "interim" CEO that is on loan form a firm that specialises in health sector mergers and acquisitions...any of this sound familiar, Ariad fans?  Making matters more interesting is solid science, a diversified pipeline with four major franchises, and partnerships with four of the six major biotech firms (including Amgen). 

My reading of the tea leaves is that they will sell the company in the next three to six months, a year at most for around $1b, or about $21 pps. This is pocket change for Big Pharmas that are hungry for new products as older lines go off patent or are replaced by innovations, particularly in the genetic therapy space (aka ADXS' home turf).  Of course I've been wrong before, but it just feels like an ARIA set up with a relatively short fuse. Time will tell.

GLTA

TC


Comments

  1. Great analysis - Advaxis has some great products which will help many patients - I see this company taking off very soon

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

June 6, 2017. Buy Out at 63?

Take a spin on our BO pricing model!Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS, per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark. 
It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0. 
OutcomePatient Pool (Same for both Scenarios) PricingPrice/Sales ratioHere's the Link to the model

Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount) High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount) 
Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study)  Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333  % of patients on treatment: 50%  Total Patients on treatment: 88,317 

Low: $25,000 (50% of Aurinia low end)  High: $50,000 (100…

June 8, 2017: The case for early approval of Voclosporin

Voclosporin will likely be approved well before the P3 trial runs it course. Here's how it's going to work. First, there's a legal and regulatory path for this approval.  While I quote the relevant passage below, here's the link to the FDA Regulations, as well as alist of drugsthatreceived accelerated approval. 

Sec. 314.510 Approval based on a surrogate endpoint or on an effect on a clinical endpoint other than survival or irreversible morbidity.
FDA may grant marketing approval for a new drug product on the basis of adequate and well-controlled clinical trials establishing that the drug product has an effect on a surrogate endpoint that is reasonably likely, based on epidemiologic, therapeutic, pathophysiologic, or other evidence, to predict clinical benefit or on the basis of an effect on a clinical endpoint other than survival or irreversible morbidity. Approval under this section will be subject to the requirement that the applicant study the drug further, to verify…

iHub has been hijacked by trolls

Yup. iHub can't get rid of "Biotech Researcher," aka BR.  It's both a win for BR (the troll), and a huge loss for iHub. Their platform loses value and credibility when they refuse to take action on perma-trolls that derail the discussion and distract investors from their efforts to just honestly share information and opinions on the equities they own.

So shame on iHub for not taking action to resolve this.

I'm going to cease and desist on posting there until the troll (BR) problem has been resolved, and credible, valuable posters have been reinstated. I've already cancelled my premium membership some time ago. I suggest you do the same.

With kind regards to all

Trading Cyclist (aka TC)