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Showing posts from October, 2017

Roller Coaster

You probably feel nauseous right now.
And you will likely feel this way for the next year, or longer, if you continue to hold AUPH. This is not a feel good stock you can just pat on the head every now and then and know that your equity is safe and steadily growing. Because it won't.

This is going to be a sickening roller coaster ride where up is down, and down is up...where we fall steeply on good clinical news, and shoot back up for no reason at all.  And if you're overweight  in AUPH, as many of us are, then nausea is your new normal.

Some of us idiots have done this before, making crazy bets on ARIA and not sleeping well for two years, making your wife think that ARIA is a secret lover, and not a biotech equity.  Let's be clear, this is not going to make sense and you WILL be sick.

It can not be otherwise if you have a big bet on AUPH.

So all that said, no whining when we plunge for no reason. You are going on this ride, like me, with eyes wide open.

And when we are so…

ADXS @26: Minimum BO Price

This a first in a series to stimulate discussion about ADXS BO price. First let's look at the market for ADXS first platform,( HPV related cancers. (Note: there are four total platforms, so we're only considering a quarter of their total IP here). 

1. How many people are we talking about?39,844 newHPV associated cancers are diagnosed every year, according to the CDC.

2. Market share assumption now assume that (low end) 10% of these cases are treated with ADXS LM related therapy, that comes to 3,984 cases per year IN THE US. So, if you assume a cost of $50,000 per treatment, that comes to about $200m in the US. now consider

3.  Now add in Europe and Japan
Europe  has a total Population of 508m people;  and Japan with a population of 127 people,Using the "prevalence" (new cases) figure of 12.5 per 100,000 (the basis for the CDC calculation), you get: 63,500 cases Europe, and 15,875 cases in Japan. 10% of these comes to 6530 and 1,588 respectively - for a total of 7,938 cas…