Take a spin on our BO pricing model!
|The Trading Cyclist|
Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS, per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark.
It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0.
- Patient Pool (Same for both Scenarios)
- Price/Sales ratio
- Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount)
- High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount)
Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study)
Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333
% of patients on treatment: 50%
Total Patients on treatment: 88,317
Low: $25,000 (50% of Aurinia low end)
High: $50,000 (100% of Aurinia low end)
Discount in European Market: 25% of US Price
Price/Sales ratio: 3.0 in both scenarios:
Note: P/S average in Biotech is around 5.5