Take a spin on our BO pricing model! The Trading Cyclist Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS , per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25 k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark. It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0. Outcome Patient Pool (Same for both Scenarios) Pricing : Price/Sales ratio Here's the Link to the model Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount) High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount) Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study) Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333 % of patients on treatment: 50% To
It would appear we have bottomed at around 6. May be a good opportunity to buy this week
ReplyDeleteAurinia Pharm. is onto SOMETHING BIG!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://qctimes.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/new-data-suggests-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-is-onto-something-big/article_d9587554-e5cc-579b-aeb4-289def23548d.html
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ReplyDeleteHappy Father's Day to every father and grandfather out there. I have a one year old grandson who is fantastic. If I knew how great it was to be a grandfather I would have done it a long time ago. On another subject, is anyone aware of anything negative about this company? Is there a legitimate bear thesis or is it just bs?
ReplyDeleteI am aware of no downside, nor any plaudible short thesis. The challenge here is simply to be patient and hold - which may take up to two or more years. Aside from that, so far anyway, we're good to go.
DeleteWondering what is up with Omeros Corporation (OMER)? Volumes & Price have jumped substantially recently.
ReplyDeleteExcerpt from March, 2017 corporate PR: "The Phase 2 open-label trial is evaluating OMS721 across four different types of complement-associated kidney diseases: IgAN, membranous nephropathy, lupus nephritis, and complement component 3 (C3) glomerulopathy. "
Complete PR : http://investor.omeros.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=219263&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2257518
Wondering if anyone here has delved into their science, etc.?
Speculating that the recent price/volume spike is a run-up as a prelude to a stock offering, as it appears they need to raise cash.
Any info/educated guesses appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Interesting, and thanks for sharing this. I've not been following OMER, but will look into this!
DeleteI thought we had covered this already. Omeros' product showed no effect on the two LN patients enrolled in the study. Additionally the product is extremely expensive to manufacture and will be priced much higher than Voclosporin. Not competition for AUPH.
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DeleteBought more today.
ReplyDeleteVid, I'm all in since two and a half weeks ago. I don't see anything derailing or slowing this down thing other than a war that involves the US. I was extra cautious in the first few months buying only 20k shares but reading, observing and studying most of the things pertinent to this stock excluding the latest articles, I decided to use all half of my Ariad profits to buy in to this stock. The other half is parked in penny earning investments, lol. GL to your new purchases too.
DeleteJess, I was done buying this months ago, but the continuous good news on Voclosporin has persuaded me otherwise. So I bought more this morning but now I really am done. If we get into a major war everything will tank temporarily except perhaps war related companies. AUPH just seems like a once in a lifetime opportunity and I think for me at my age I may not get another one. So, once again, like Ariad I am overweight in this one company. But unlike with Ariad, a total disaster here will be bad but not devastating. I am still waiting for something to make me feel differently about AUPHENIA. Otherwise I am here as long as it takes.
DeleteSorry, meant AUPH
ReplyDeleteOption traders know something we don't? Auph assets are well documented. What else could it be unless there are leaks about a BO or something to that effect..jmo.
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/options-traders-know-something-aurinia-125312011.html
Looks like we are running in anticipation of the meeting tomorrow possibly. Or else there are others who realize, like I did yesterday morning, that there may never be the opportunity to get shares this cheaply again.
DeleteVid- You said "Omeros' product showed no effect on the two LN patients enrolled in the study. "
DeleteWhy does this not qualify as a positive effect?: This more recent PR says "As previously reported, 4 of 5 lupus nephritis patients in the Phase 2 trial also demonstrated marked reduction in 24-hour urine protein levels (mean reduction of 69 percent) with OMS721 treatment. Further analyses are in progress."
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/2017/05/17/omeros-corporation-omer-completes-iga-nephropathy-cohort-oms721-phase-2-clinical-trial/
I did not see the more recent PR. If there is efficacy against LN that will be a plus for their product. Nevertheless, it is a monoclonal antibody, super expensive to produce and as with other biologics inherently difficult to predict replicable results and also with unpredictable side effects. Therefore I dont think it will be any kind of competition for Voclosporin.
DeleteThanks for posting your take on it- much appreciated.
DeleteHonestly, this isn't a problem for us as far I can tell. HuMabs are great but not without a lot of problems. Small molecules like Voclosporin are far less expensive and with far better replicable results.
DeleteShould be a good day tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/health/draft-order-on-drug-prices-proposes-easing-regulations.html
Good plan- the USA is grossly over-regulated, wasting mammoth sums of time and money. Related to this subject, China is poised to become a biotech powerhouse:
Deletehttps://www.statnews.com/2017/06/15/china-biotech-industry/
Yes indeed . AF mockingly predicts a 3x increase in the IBB based on this news. On another note I will go out on a limb and predict Allergen makes a buyout offer for AUPH for 3.5 billion within 18 months. They need to protect their Restasis franchise. 3.5 billion translates about to the 36 pps I had thought we would get bought out for when I first started my position in January. I still believe 36 will be the number.
ReplyDeleteI think that's a pretty sturdy limb and you're very safe. I wouldn't be surprised if one or more BP's have already sent the feelers out in an effort to explore Glickman's mindset. What does surprise me a little is the recent price history and current low valuation, so I guess we can expect almost anything over the near term; ie., a continuation of the roller coaster.
ReplyDeleteBut the basics (science and results to date) appear so compelling and solid the risk/reward opportunity here looks almost overwhelming. I can't see anything in bio-land that approaches the attractiveness of this- if anyone is aware of anything close please post what it is and thanks in advance.
I continue to believe the real risk is missing the boat by not being in this at this level.
GLTA
The slide on the link below (courtesy of Ron) is a post hoc analysis after the Ph2b 24-week data. This helps support my prediction that Ph3 results will likely be even stronger than 2b because of the better selection of clinical trial sites with access to reasonable healthcare, and healthier patient population.
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/Longtraders/message/86536511
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DeleteNice Summary of recent Madrid Conference from "Lupus News Today"
ReplyDeletehttps://lupusnewstoday.com/2017/06/21/trial-shows-voclosporin-combo-therapy-eliminates-lupus-nephritis-in-many-patients/
I have to say it is great to have the Lupus Foundation on our side!
DeleteVery valuable- you can't buy that!
DeleteI want to clarify my earlier, seemingly contradictory, statements regarding my prediction for an estimated buyout figure. I think 37 is the number if we are acquired before approval. However, if Voclosporin is already approved, and if the dry eye indication has started its development, then I think a number as high as 80 per share is feasible although much less likely. That assumes the company being acquired at twice potential revenue for both indications combined , or approximately 8 billion. That is under perfect conditions which is unlikely to occur but I dont think that possibility is totally unreasonable.
ReplyDeleteAs I've mentioned previously, I think that range is completely reasonable. It's also 100% consistent with the little pricing model I have spammed to everyone multiple times. That said, my model did not attempt to include dry eye indications (not enough data to make an educated guess), so I might be a little on the low side.
DeleteBest to all,
TC
Hope Ron is right:
ReplyDelete@RonaldLiu3
$AUPH Intend to hold for 3 yr. Science is getting stronger from these post hoc analysis. Next is showing voc is safe for pregnancy.
Also hope Bob Duggan winds up on the BOD (echoing whoever said he will insure BO achieves the max $$$
Duggan would be to Aurinia what Denner was to Ariad. Max value if he gets on the board.
ReplyDeleteWondering about this excerpt from Lupus News Today article titled "Lupus Remission 101: Learn the Basics":
ReplyDelete"According to lupus.org, if a person experiences a long period of remission, doctors may suggest that they lower their dosage of immunosuppressants. Steroid use can often stop altogether if there is no disease activity."
Wondering if that is happening within the P2 followup of Voclosporin; ie., I'm wondering if some are stopping the steroids and lowering the dose of Voclosporin, etc. and also wondering if they would report the results of that or ???
https://lupusnewstoday.com/2017/06/16/remission-101-learn-basics/?utm_source=LUP+NEws+E-mail+List&utm_campaign=46329b104e-RSS_THURSDAY_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_50dac6e56f-46329b104e-72286769
My understanding is that Voclosporin enables the nephritis patients to reduce their dependence on steroids. Voclosporin's effects on Lupus in general remain uncertain although the Sledai scores indicate some efficacy for the disease in general ... but that remains to be seen obviously.
ReplyDeleteFunniest comment ever: BR on Ischlub: "Nice day today. It does have a tendency to flip day to day".
ReplyDelete47 weeks ta go. The BO price increases with time.
ReplyDeleteEstimated Enrollment: 324
DeleteActual Study Start Date: May 17, 2017
Estimated Study Completion Date: March 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date: December 2019 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03021499
All dependent on how fast enrollment goes. Clinical trail completion dates are always worse case scenario. If Voclosporin is as good as we think it is, and has FDA fast track status, market release is going to be much sooner!
DeleteThis trail has to loading up quickly...there is nothing else out there to help these poor souls...
"Zacks Investment Research Downgrades Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) to Sell
ReplyDeleteAurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) (TSE:AUP) was downgraded by Zacks Investment Research from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note issued on Tuesday." (June 27)
Curious what the so-called "research note" by these geniuses says- does anyone have access to it?
If the morons at Zacks downgraded the stock then you know we have a good thing here. More often than not they get it wrong.
ReplyDeleteIt's a strange occurrence as generally houses are anathema to ever use a "sell" rating (usually "hold" means "sell" in their nomenclature). Makes me wonder if a hedge paid them for that. Since the SEC is essentially toothless, it's unlikely we'll ever know. Still would like to see the actual verbiage they used out of curiosity and comic appreciation.
ReplyDeleteI had the same thought. Yes, Zacks opinions are for sale to anyone.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it great that the SEC is finally going after some of the crooks at Ariad. Wonder if they will be able to get the head criminal from that time.
ReplyDeletevid- curious re this ongoing voclosporin study (NCT02949999):
ReplyDeleteVoclosporin in Healthy Japanese Volunteers
This study is currently recruiting participants.
See Contacts and Locations
Verified January 2017 by Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Sponsor:
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Information provided by (Responsible Party):
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:
NCT02949999
Estimated Enrollment: 40
Study Start Date: October 2016
Estimated Study Completion Date: March 2017
Primary Completion Date: December 2016 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
It should be complete but is still recruiting- no results released. Wondering if this is just for internal use at Aurinia and the results won't be made public or ???
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02949999
Moose I was not aware of this trial and have no knowledge about it. Perhaps Lunacy or others can be more helpful
DeleteI was thinking it is related to Glickman's references to other potential uses for Voclosporin. If the others here draw a blank, I can always email Aurinia and ask. Thx for the response.
DeleteThat was the Japanese bridge study to confirm the Japanese metabolize the drug in a similar fashion as the other demographics. That study was important so that they would accept Auph's single Ph3 for approval as well.
DeleteHope that helps...
Thanks!
DeleteRight, now I recall that . Thanks lunacy, I knew you would know. On another note, I had to laugh when I read BR's post about making .15 on his AUPH trade. Anyone only trading this stock and not holding a large core position is a fool. At any moment on any day an announcement may be made sending the sp much higher. Anyone trading and not having a position on that day is SOL. I suspect that BR is just a daytrader and made pennies on Ariad while some of us made millions. Same thing will happen here.
ReplyDelete