Take a spin on our BO pricing model! The Trading Cyclist Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS , per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25 k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark. It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0. Outcome Patient Pool (Same for both Scenarios) Pricing : Price/Sales ratio Here's the Link to the model Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount) High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount) Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study) Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333 % of patients on treatment: 50% To
Do the institutes that now own a large portion of the float want the price to go up? Probably not just yet. Not with 2 plus years to go. Look at how the institutes have controlled array which is now 100% owned by the tutes.
ReplyDeleteThey are still accumulating auph and collecting each month on options so they will attempt to control the price to meet there needs (strike price). I think we are stuck for now. Like Vid says, Patience is the key. Of course for those that lack patience one could join them in the options market and do reasonably well each month. Trying to play the long/short game is a tough road in my opinion.
I agree. I'm content to just sit on the shares that I already have. I am in the Schwab share lending program and plan to reinvest that money on dips. It has ranged from 5-10% lately. As far as I'm concerned, AUPH is a dividend paying stock for the next 2 years. New money is going into companies with closer catalysts (ARRY is one).
DeleteSeems like a gradual price rise is not out of the question at this point. I do agree however on the institutional control game. It appears that analyst consensus of AUPH price is about $11/share so it is not unreasonable to think we could creep upwards.
ReplyDeleteAnyone here have any concern over the 'speculative stock' comment Glickman made?
ReplyDeleteHe should have said all stocks are speculative but AUPH less so as it is derisked by a fantastic phase 2 result.
ReplyDeleteI think he was trying to go there, but Cramer wasn't giving him any breathing room while completely stumbling over himself. Cramer & the Montley Fool guys teamed up for a nice P&D. Cramer started getting nervous toward the end when he knew he had to attempt to paint AUPH as a risky play...IMHO
DeleteYou and Moose have the same take on this "incident" as I do. But the old saying goes any publicity is good publicity. More people know about AUPH now and that is definitely a good thing. If we drop to 6 or lower I will have a difficult time stopping myself from adding more and when it comes to being disciplined about a company I have 100 percent faith in, I dont have much self restraint.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Around 6, and certainly below that, I overweight some more. But still not like I did with ARIA. That was seruously dangerous for mental health, over and above the obvious financial stupidity.
DeleteAgreed about the Ariad stupidity...it was so bad for me that my broker made me sign a statement revealing that my ridiculous overweight position in that stock was my doing so that my employees also in the pension plan couldn't sue him, just me, if Ariad crapped out. Now I am "diversified" with a bunch of non stock oriented funds so that if AUPH goes to Hell I (and my employees) am "protected". Of course he makes his cut anyway on the whole thing which is only up because I bought most of the AUPH shares in January while his funds languish.
ReplyDeleteBy nature I think many of us actually like the risk but the stress of Ariad took its toll and wont be repeated here, at least not for me. But AUPH is my only individual stock and I have enough that it will hurt if the worst happens so I have to sweat it out anyway. But if the opposite occurs my grandchildren and their children may stop by my final resting place to say a few kind words if not too busy on whatever device they are using then to communicate. (Hopefully not for awhile as I have a few of my own plans if/when AUPH hits).
Too funny about your broker. There was something addictive about being involved in Ariad...an opiod based biotech, perhaps. I thank my lucky stars often that we had a happy ending...
DeleteLooks like 7 will be the new 6. Lunacy and moose nailed it regarding their assessments of yesterdays action. Since the interview I am considering adding more as Glickman was so impressive and honest. I like that he added the term speculative which is exactly what this stock is as are all small biotechs which are binary plays. I cannot imagine Berger ever doing such a thing as he was so completely disingenuous when he said he "wished he could add more" as he was selling shares. Other insiders there are under investigation by the SEC for their insider trading and imo Berger should be held accountable as well for his assurances that everything was ok just before Ponatinib blew up. I cannot possibly imagine Glickman being anything other than honest with the shareholders which is why I think this is the best biotech I have ever invested in. This interview provided a very brief pump and dump opportunity for the wall street hucksters but also provided priceless PR for the company, the value of which will be realized at some point when we get multiple billions from a BP upon buyout. The only question is how many more shares do we add and when to do so.
ReplyDeleteWell put.
DeleteFall is rapidly approaching. With it will comes news of the second indication for Voclosporin and hopefully the announcement of a partnership to pay for it. These are exciting times for investors as there is still time to accumulate a large position but that may not last depending on the news in the Fall. Since January there has been nothing but good news. The dilution was a positive as it allows management to concentrate on the business of getting Voclosporin approved for LN. There are numerous other indications for Voclosporin and you can rest assured that once Voclosporin is approved for LN, it will then be used off label for other indications until approval for them as well. We are sitting on a multi billion dollar drug with a market cap only reflecting a small percentage of the eventual value of the product. This has to be the best biotech play out there now and will be a life changing investment just as Ariad was for some of us. I couldn't be happier with an investment opportunity as we have in this company.
ReplyDeleteTwo year wait?
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ReplyDeleteYes two year wait unless bought out earlier. But I expect the sp will go up before that, possibly as soon as this Fall due to a significant catalyst announced during the Cramer interview which is the announcement of the second indication. Nothing short of that will move the sp but that news should be sufficient to see the sp rise. Then I expect a slow rise after that until buyout or LN approval.
ReplyDeleteSP very well controlled now. No surprises. Very predictable and there is some comfort in the range we are in for now. Allows retailers with the desire to add more shares plenty of time to do so. Enables fairly large positions to be accumulated over time. As near to perfect an investment as there is currently.
ReplyDeleteYes, Dr. Glickman does have a great moral compass. He will not sell his shareholders short as another biotech ceo we know did once a long time ago. No, instead Dr. Glickman will see to it that his loyal shareholders are well rewarded for their forebearance. I still see 37 as the buyout in the near term. If it goes beyond the approval it is anyone's guess. Jess may be right at 60 or above.
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