Take a spin on our BO pricing model! The Trading Cyclist Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS , per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25 k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark. It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0. Outcome Patient Pool (Same for both Scenarios) Pricing : Price/Sales ratio Here's the Link to the model Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount) High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount) Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study) Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333 % of patients on treatment: 50% To
about nothing. Expecting very little here over the next two years. But, we will win in the end, again.
ReplyDeleteOver the next 12-24 months I am expecting very little as far as the sp goes. After 24 months, if the company still exists I expect a very impressive change in the sp , possibly up to the mid to upper 20's in anticipation of a Voclosporin approval or a buyout. 2 years is practically nothing to wait. Until then the sp is meaningless.
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DeleteGood info from a fellow AUPH long with more details on Ph2b for those into that kinda thing...
ReplyDeletehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4086087-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-phase-iii-design-gleaned-phase-ii-study
Thanks for the link- excellent, very powerful and well balanced article- best I've seen from SA so far re AUPH. Ron presents the bull case but with caveats to be aware of as well. A question re his cautionary reference to the possibility of not reaching the following secondary endpoint:
Delete"As shown in the aforementioned Table 1, 33% patients (low-dose voclosporin) achieved complete remission compared to 19% patients (control) at 24 weeks in Phase II. The P-value generated for this endpoint is 0.045. Generally, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will reject biological studies if the P-value>0.05. Therefore, investors should be wary of a potential failure to meet the secondary endpoint in Phase III if P-value>0.045."
I am thinking that in the event it's a close call, due to the twin factors of the pressure of Lupus Advocacy Groups plus what appears to be a more patient friendly spirit at the FDA, there would be a reasonably strong likelihood of approval, and maybe a Phase 4 trial as a follow-up?
Well done Ron!
The 24 wk low dose P-value was not ideal, but I believe there's sufficient evidence that it will be much more favorable in the Ph3 study. When the data was reviewed after removing sites with compromised medical care the CR success rates went from 33% to 38% and p-value of .045 to .02. It was also the sickest LN group ever studied.
DeleteThanks for that info- very impressive! The more I learn about this company, the more I like their approach, values, etc. Somewhere I read that when Glickman was asked why they enrolled so many very ill people in their prior trial, he said something like "We're trying to save these people." You have to love someone with a heart like that. Hoping and praying to God they succeed as so many people suffering will benefit.
DeleteWhile we wait... There's commotion over at ADXS. CEO out. Should be an interesting day.
ReplyDeleteAlso new paper out on cyclosporine for steroid refractory ulcerative colitis. Potential for additional indication for VOC?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/28675163/
Is the comment section here dying auph?
ReplyDeleteit would appear so. But no comments are better than most of the idiotic comments on ST and Ihub.
ReplyDeleteTrue. All my responses to that weirdo grandma poster get deleted
DeleteObviously at this point AURINIA remains an outstanding opportunity. Since the results of phase 2B which were better than anticipated, there has been no news which has been in any way negative regarding the prospects for Voclosporin's ultimate approval. However, there has been a significant transference of shares from the retail investors to the institutional investors who understand the nuances of investing in small biotechs better than do the retail investors for the most part. Interestingly, an impasse seems to have been reached at this point between the opposing forces, creating an opportunity for knowledgeable retail investors to continue to accumulate shares over a prolonged period of time at very low prices; perhaps the best opportunity in years to accumulate a large position in an outstanding small company before an inevitable buyout within 24-30 months. This has to be one of the best chances for an average investor to realize a fortune merely by accumulating shares over time which may eventually be worth 5- 10 times their current value. All that is required is a modicum of knowledge and patience.
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to thank rum and dog over at Ihub for their kind words. Hopefully we will all meet to celebrate a great buyout at some point as we had discussed earlier.
ReplyDelete"Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Management Its Best Asset?"
ReplyDelete(tried to post entire article here but it exceeded the character limit)
Question re the info in this piece: Why did the P2 control more than double the 9% (cited in the article) complete response rate? Is this the "placebo effect" at work or ???
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=133017710
You answered your own question. The placebo effect combined with patients undergoing careful monitoring and likely having their immune response boosted by the knowledge that they were being possibly being treated with a new med (despite the lack of actual improved treatment) resulted in the cr doubling. The placebo effect is real and every provider I know including me employs it often in treating patients.
DeleteThanks for that comprehensive response- very helpful; much appreciated. I didn't realize the effect could be so large- kind of amazing to me!
DeleteIt's always interesting how a little positive reinforcement can have such an amazing effect on a patient's ability to boost his/her immune response. Reinforcing a treatment by a placebo or even just positive words from a provider about the treatment's probable effects is enough to boost healing. Fortunately for the patients and the investors, Voclosporin's efficacy far outweighs any degree of placebo effect.
Delete"Reinforcing a treatment by a placebo or even just positive words from a provider about the treatment's probable effects is enough to boost healing."
DeleteHopefully this query just displays ignorance and not stupidity: Does that mean that the drug effect can also be boosted by the same positivity?
Thanks in advance for your generosity.
Moose, I cant cite any examples directly, but I am quite sure that there have been multiple studies that would support the thesis that the context in which a treatment is administered has an influence on the outcome of the treatment. The best providers know the importance of putting a positive spin on whatever treatment they are recommending and will "accentuate the positive" while downplaying the negative aspects. I think most medical schools have become aware of the need to integrate courses in psychology into their curriculum. Double blinded drug trials seek to reduce the influence of those who administer the drug but despite that objectivity the subjects on the placebo do better than others not in the study. The only explanation would be that the subjects on the placebo think they might be on the actual drug and that alone is enough to stimulate self healing. But a patient's attitude toward the provider and the treatment the provider is recommending is extremely important in the outcome. I have seen it countless times in my own practice.
DeleteGlickman was eloquent.
ReplyDeleteHave to laugh reading BR's comments on ihub. Now that the sp is retreating a little he is jumping all over Glickman for his haircut and any other bullshit he can think of, just to try to stir the pot as usual. He's back to being the spineless POS he always has been until the next rally when he switches identities to become a cheerleader again lol.
ReplyDeleteHis good-guy bad-guy routine is ridiculous!
DeleteBR's reference to a "poster no longer on this board" referring to Dr Glickman as "Glicky" to dismiss his own rude reference may or may not be true. If he was referring to me as the author of that very obnoxious moniker then it is just another of BR's lies.
ReplyDeleteIn watching the video of the interview again, I am struck by how totally honest and genuine Dr. Glickman came across as opposed to most biotech ceos. He managed to convey his excitement over Voclosporin's prospects while also not hyping the company by his adding the term "speculative". The p and d was no surprise, but the positive pr from this interview will not be lost among the deep pocketed professional investors who will ultimately determine the fate of this company. I hope someday to see Dr. Glickman achieve a Nobel prize for his contributions to medicine and humanity and I think that there is a very good chance we will see that happen.
ReplyDeleteLaughing at the comment from the resident asshole on Ihub this morning trying to instill fear and doubt about possible competition for Voclosporin, knowing full well that Voclosporin is intended for LN, not SLE in general (not yet anyway).
ReplyDeleteYep, looks like he's officially got his bad-guy hat on again.
DeleteHe and the moron who posts non stop repetitive gibberish deserve each other...and are likely both paid by the same crooks who engineered yesterday's pump and dump so skillfully. Thankfully we dont have to deal with their stupidity over here.
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