Take a spin on our BO pricing model! The Trading Cyclist Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS , per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25 k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark. It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0. Outcome Patient Pool (Same for both Scenarios) Pricing : Price/Sales ratio Here's the Link to the model Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount) High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount) Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study) Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333 % of patients on treatment: 50% To
I'm curious why the end date of the trials is SO far off. From a seeking alpha thread yesterday they say the clinical trial isn't expected to be finalized until March 2020. From the article: The primary endpoint of the 320-subject study is complete renal response at week 52. According to ClinicalTrials.gov, the estimated study completion date is March 2020.
ReplyDeleteIs this accurate?
I'm not 100% on the timeline but from my reads that is probably about right. The 52 weeks isnt up till its been 52 weeks from the first dose of the last patient. So first they gotta get all the patients signed up and going and then they will have to go through the data once finished. Alot are betting on it being shorter than that as they believe patient sign up will fly faster than thought.
DeleteCorrect, they are expecting speedy enrollment. But, there won't be anything released until completion of the trial being 52 weeks from the last patient plus time to analyze the results. It was said to expect 18 month for full enrollment, but Glick has mentioned he thinks it will be shorter than that.
DeleteThese are the hard days, the days the shorts and trolls (like BR over at iHub) try to get you to sell your shares. I have no idea what motivates these assholes or how they are paid, or by whom, but they are poison.
ReplyDeleteIt's on days like these that you have to remind yourself, or at least that I have to remind myself (!), of the fundamentals. And it's really pretty simple. The patient pool for Lupus LN is around 250,000 - and if you had half of them on treatment, that would be 125,000 people: a) getting healthier; and b) having their insurance company pay between $50,000 and $100,000 per year for treatment. So do the math. With 125,000 on treatment, that's $6.25 billion in revenues. With a price/revenue ratio of 2 (not correct for the biotech industry where the average is 5), and given there are about 80m shares outstanding, that yields a share price of $156. If that sounds crazy to you, fine. Assume there half that many patients on treatment, a quarter of the total, and you still end up in the $78 price range. Call in higher end, and maybe only achieved after several years,
but this is where we are headed.
And none of that, of course, takes into account the dry eyes indication - for dogs, and possibly people as well. So the number goes higher.
All this to say, remember what you own. You own a stock with tremendous potential. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Cheers,
TC
This stock wont make me rich as I didnt have that much to put in, but in the end it will buy me a house. I fully accepted at minimum a 3 year time line for this, Im in at 7.11 and comfortable with that. lower woulda been better but thems the breaks.
DeleteThat sounds quite sensible and I completely agree with your timeline. I'm hoping it will only be two, but it very well may be three. Onward!
DeleteBy the way, we've had 2,100 page views in 2 days (as of a few minutes ago), so folks are actually reading this!!
ReplyDeleteCheers,
TC
I am very happy that you had the idea of starting this forum TC. I agree with the 2-3 year time frame and also your projections for the eventual revenue from the LN indication and numbers of patients who may go on it . I think the pricing may be a bit lower than your projections, perhaps 30-40 thousand a year as Glickman doesn't strike me as being overly greedy. That still leaves a sp much higher than we had initially projected if you are correct on the number of patients who may go on it. I do think we see a buyout before the data is released as BP will pay much more if they wait until after after approval. I still think the buyout will be between 3-5 billion unless the DES indication gains traction. There is nothing negative as far as I can see except the mm's playing games to try to steal our shares. Screw them though, they wont get my shares until Hell freezes over.
DeleteGuys - I'm very new to the investing game. Got a hot tip on ARIA and made a couple of bucks, nothing crazy. Following Vid on the IHub board brought me to AUPH. I'm loving everything I'm reading both on my own and also what you experienced investors have shared. May I ask a very basic question? I love AUPH and want to buy a house too! The question is, what % of your total value do you invest with something you love? I know we are supposed to diversify, but I'm also looking for the home run. Is their a suggested %? I'm in at 4's and 7's but want to add more. Thanks in advance!
ReplyDeleteThe usual advice is diversify diversify diversify. Fidelity recommends no more than 5% in any equity. Others take a more extreme position. A number of us, for example, were 100% in with ARIA - which was crazy, extremely stressful, and probably quite reckless. However, I didn't start out at that level. I started with a relatively small position, learned more about it, and grew my position over time as I became more familiar with the risks and potential benefits.
DeleteSo that's where I end up. Stick a toe in the water, and then see how you feel about this and what you've learned a few weeks or a month later. At the end of the day, you're the only one who can determine what level of risk is right for you, and how many horses you want to bet on.
Hope that's of some help.
Cheers,
TC
Very helpful, thank you! I needed a baseline and you gave me one. I'm currently 12% in and want to go to about 20-25%, so probably reckless as well. But I love this too much not to add.
DeleteIm the definition of reckless, im all in =), first got at 3.52 and rode till dilution and sold at 8.29. Took profits and rebought at 7.11. Will ride it out till end this time or until i see a bright light to jump out and in again.
ReplyDeleteToday's action-
ReplyDeleteJust some observations: very steady price control throughout the day. imo indicative of filling large order(s) I am not of the camp that there is news pending good or bad. mm sat around 7 area for weeks and therefore can and will move price +/- 10% or more (Down 4.7% now) from that price point. tough to watch but this is tightly controlled albeit in descending price. Good day to you.
What's everyone's thoughts on the additional options Glick is proposing? I'm undecided.
ReplyDeleteI missed that. What is he proposing?
ReplyDeleteMaybe they will get it to the 5's where I am considering buying again. Seems the tutes are getting impatient for cheap shares. I wonder if they know something may be coming up sooner rather than later.
ReplyDeleteI am starting to worry that I am not at all concerned about the trading lately....maybe I am missing something . At least now I have something to worry about.
Delete