This is a good place to share your thoughts about AUPH.
We've had about 6,000 page views in the few days we've been up and running - but now we need to hear from you!TC
Take a spin on our BO pricing model! The Trading Cyclist Our model is generating a range of $35-63 BO PPS , per the low/high case scenarios below - where only the Voc price is different (25 k vs 50k). My hunch is that this is both conservative and in the ballpark. It's conservative b/c: 1) patient population is consistent with Aurinia's projection; 2) assumes only 35% of population on treatment; 3) assumes 75% discount for European market; 4) pricing is at 50% of range projected by Aurinia; 5) uses target P/S ratio of 3, which is below Biotech industry average of 5.0. Outcome Patient Pool (Same for both Scenarios) Pricing : Price/Sales ratio Here's the Link to the model Low end BO PPS w/30% discount: $35 ($50 no discount) High End BO PPS w/30% discount $63 ($90 no discount) Prev: 26.5 per 100,000 (Based on epidemiological study) Total Patient pool (US, Europe, Japan): 252,333 % of patients on treatment: 50% To
TC, it would be nice if you can follow the same format as IHUB where you can see at least 40/50 post headings in one page, that way you can respond right away to a particular post. This is just a suggestion.
ReplyDeleteJessPro
Thank you Jess, and great to see you here!! The best I can do, given the limitations of blogger, is to start a fresh page every day. That said, we're getting a lot of traffic so the daily comments will be increasing! Also, reseting each day keeps it fresh! Looking forward to seeing you post here!!
DeleteThanks for the idea on Ihub great info. Gonna buy more today.
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting here!! We really look forward to hearing your thoughts. So don't be a stranger!! TC
DeleteJess, I think that your good suggestion may not be possible due to the limitations on the way this blogsite can be formatted. TC can verify that or correct me if I am wrong. Nice to see you here anyway where you can feel free to comment about anything including the daily disingenuous posts on Ihub by the resident basher.
ReplyDeleteThat is correct, but hoping you'll join us here anyway, jess. We won't let trolls hijack the dialogue, which is really how iHub has failed. Cheers.
DeleteLooks like we're going up today! Hope this holds, fingers crossed everone.
ReplyDeleteTC
Looks like the mms are having their way again today. There was a comment on Ihub that AUPH may be similar to Ariad in being held down until the buyout. It certainly would appear that this may be true. But, on the positive side, the low sp allows those of us who are so inclined, to continue to add to our positions. Personally I wont buy any more until the low 5's or 4's which may or may not occur. One thing is certain, there is nothing that has occurred to the company to warrant the decline from the 10's to the 6's. Therefore, no need to panic and sell.
ReplyDeleteYes, they let us have a good day, and now they are hard at work again. When I went through this with Ariad...for three years...it was exhausting. I took the daily movements much too seriously, and kept hoping for the next catalyst. But all for naught. The bottom line was simply that Brigatinib, and perhaps less so Ponatinib had great value and drove the BO at 24. Same deal here with Voclosporin, but the BO price will likely be at least $10 to 15 higher. In the meantime, I'll just go for a lot of long bike rides...
DeleteTC
Biking for you, golf for me. Both good for our mental health while waiting for AUPH to hit. While the manipulation here is similar to Ariad, the products are very different. Unlike Brigatinib and Ponatinib, Voclosporin is neither toxic or just one among many similar drugs. It is uniquely positioned to quickly capture the LN market as there is virtually no competition. It enjoys a stellar safety record with thousands of patients already having received the drug with very few adverse effects. And the icing on the cake is the fairly high probability that Voclosporin could replace Cyclosporine (Restasis) as the drug of choice for dry eye syndrome, not to mention the many other indications yet to be explored. AUPH is a one of a kind biotech which should reward those of us with the tenacity to endure these somewhat trying times. Anything worthwhile does not come easily. This is no exception.
DeleteAnother article came out today that was positive in nature but had bad information regarding data readout for the Ph3 study Aurora. I reconfirmed with IR today that there will be no interim data released, and first data release will be after trial conclusion being 52wk+ from final patient enrollment. I have my shares tucked away, so the games in the meantime are just noise. GLTA
ReplyDeleteThanks, and I'm impressed that IR is a BFF! I also have my shares locked up, and am staying off of iHub to avoid the troll domination there...
DeleteCheers.
iHub is ridiculous lately. I'm astonished at how they've been operating. Can you believe I panic sold 20% of my RobinHood position?? I was sick over it once I couldn't get back in at a lower price. Just wanted to voice my terrible blunder to "get it out." Ugh, so frustrated.
DeleteI'm sorry to hear that. I think that is why iHub is dangerous. The troll completely dominated the narrative, basically because the users can't just ignore him (I'm guilty of responding to him as well, so no holier than thou from me). Much safer/saner here, or ST. All the best, TC
DeleteAlthough many of us have BS/BR on ignore we still end up reading his crap. Sort of like being hooked on heroin. You know it's poison but cant stop. Anyway, the best thing that's happened is the freedom your blog has brought us to vent about that asshole. I wonder how many others have sold their precious shares in AUPH because of that mf as the "unknown" poster did. What a shame.
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