How are you holding up, Auphians?
As for me, I get that this is a long term proposition. And yet, it's still really hard to see nearly 5% of my holdings go up in smoke. I think one thing that helps in staying OFF of iHub, where the trolls are out in force. They just make things worse, so best to give them a miss.
Best regards to all,
TC
As for me, I get that this is a long term proposition. And yet, it's still really hard to see nearly 5% of my holdings go up in smoke. I think one thing that helps in staying OFF of iHub, where the trolls are out in force. They just make things worse, so best to give them a miss.
Best regards to all,
TC
Yesterday was a little rough. Closed out a position in CYTR to get in on the 6.60's. Hopefully we see a bounce today or find some support.
ReplyDeleteThat was a good move! And you will probably be able to sell at a profit and buy back more shares of CYTR. Nice !!
DeleteI think this drop stems from a SeekingAlpha article that used the below source to claim that the P3 trial won't finish until March 2020. Two and a half years of stagnation?
ReplyDeletehttps://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT03021499
Thanks for the link, I had not seen that. I suspect it's likely or possible it will be completed before that time. We shall see.
DeleteI did not hear about seeking alpha article but they publish a lot of garbage.
Delete[THIS ONE IS FROM VID, JUST MOVING IT TO THE TOP]
ReplyDeleteI am very happy that you had the idea of starting this forum TC. I agree with the 2-3 year time frame and also your projections for the eventual revenue from the LN indication and numbers of patients who may go on it . I think the pricing may be a bit lower than your projections, perhaps 30-40 thousand a year as Glickman doesn't strike me as being overly greedy. That still leaves a sp much higher than we had initially projected if you are correct on the number of patients who may go on it. I do think we see a buyout before the data is released as BP will pay much more if they wait until after after approval. I still think the buyout will be between 3-5 billion unless the DES indication gains traction. There is nothing negative as far as I can see except the mm's playing games to try to steal our shares. Screw them though, they wont get my shares until Hell freezes over.
My guesses on pricing probably will turn out to be high. I think the last announcement from Glickman (was it in an interview?) he said the price would be between 40 - 100k which seems like a really big range. I also think (just guessing again) that getting 25% of the patient population on treatment in the first two years would be a huge accomplishment. So that's 62,000 patients @ 40k = $2.5b, and at a P/S ration of 2 (conservative) that comes to $62.5 per share. So, even at HALF that amount, it's way up from where we're training now (!).
DeleteBest to all,
TC
What's everyone's thoughts on the additional options Glick wants to push through at the shareholder meeting? I think they probably deserve them, but more dilution right now doesn't sound very good to me.
ReplyDelete"APPROVAL OF STOCK OPTION PLAN
On June 28, 2012, the Shareholders passed a resolution approving the Stock Option Plan. On June 8, 2016, the Shareholders passed a
resolution increasing the maximum number of Common Shares reserved for issuance under the Stock Option Plan from 10% to 12.5% of
the outstanding Common Shares of the Company at the time of grant. Pursuant to the rules of the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”),
because the number of options issuable pursuant to the Stock Option Plan is based on a fixed percentage (12.5% of the aggregate number of
Common Shares outstanding from time to time), rather than a fixed maximum number of Common Shares, the Company must obtain
approval of the unallocated entitlements under the Stock Option Plan from Shareholders every three years.
The purpose of the Stock Option Plan is to provide incentive to the Company’s employees, officers, directors, and consultants responsible
for the continued success of the Company. A summary of the Stock Option Plan is included later in this Circular under the heading
“Statement of Executive and Director Compensation – Equity Compensation Plan – Stock Option Plan”.
Shareholders will be asked to approve the unallocated options under the Stock Option Plan. If approved, the Company will again be
required to seek Shareholder approval of unallocated options by June 21, 2020. The
9
number of unallocated options is calculated by subtracting the number of outstanding options from the number that represents 12.5% of the
issued and outstanding Common Shares. As of May 12, 2017, 4,939,506 options (equal to approximately 5.93% of the issued and
outstanding Common Shares) were issued and outstanding under the Stock Option Plan, leaving 5,469,531 unallocated options (equal to
approximately 6.57% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares) available for future issuance. If Shareholder approval is not obtained
at the Meeting, existing options will vest in accordance with the Stock Option Plan, and all unallocated options will be cancelled and the
Company will not be permitted to make further grants of options until Shareholder approval is obtained."
http://ir.auriniapharma.com/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-17-176713/0001193125-17-176713.pdf
Yuck. Another dilution would be unfortunate, having just done this a short while ago. I wonder if it's harder to get staff motivated b/c of the 1-3 year wait to the big buy out, so this is what they have to do to keep everyone on board. Just a theory, of course, but sill.
DeleteTC
My pharmacist son recommended this a while back. He said "go all in" nothing out there at all for Lupus-- he loved the P2 numbers.
DeleteGlad to hear it, you've made a great investment. Sounds like your son is a smart man!
DeleteHi John. I'd like to invite you to become an author on The Auphians. If you are willing to do so, could you send me your email address? If you post it here, I will delete it immediately when I receive it. Alternatively, I will post my email address when you give me the word, and the delete after you've received it.
DeleteCheers,
john
I've now been blocked by the administrators at iHub, lol. What a joke!
ReplyDeleteWhat a joke indeed. BR is really on a roll. Would be nice of Jess and a few of the others migrated this way. I have been posting there but only to spam the link to this site...which no longer works because they have taken away my ability to have a signature, which is where I was putting the link. Talk about controlling...!
DeleteGreat link to updated detailed institutional ownership for anyone interested:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/JamesJammer/message/84338647
TC, I am only able to access today's thread via the link you sent me in the email earlier. Any idea why?
ReplyDeleteLunacy- re options: I think the recent price decline is largely due to that. I think Ron Liu said it was 16M additional shares so from 83M current plus prior options to be issued = 100M shares + 16M newly proposed = 116M total fully excercised.
ReplyDeleteI think the market is just repricing AUPH to reflect this new reality so for me no big deal; no worries.
cheers
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteMoose, if I'm reading it correctly they want to extend the current option plan to the new share count which would add another 5 million and change worth of potential shares to the total. Not huge dilution, but dilution nonetheless. Am I correct in reading it this way?
DeleteThanks for this detail, Lunacy. At least it is a small dilution, not that I'm crazy about that idea... (!)
DeleteHave a great weekend.
TC
Maybe I misunderstood or misread Ron's numbers- detail is not my strength so I need to delve into the document- hopefully someone will have already done it by the time I get around to it next week (it's beer & horseshoes time).
DeleteHappy Memorial Day everyone- echo all the sentiments remembering those American Patriots who served, many of whom gave all to preserve the freedoms we enjoy and guard, which are the envy of the world.
May God continue to Bless America (and may we continue to Bless God)
Best to all,
cheers
Yes thank God we have people still willing to serve our country. I am in awe of everyone who has been in the miltary as many in my own family have been. Every veteran is a hero and should be treated as such imo.
DeleteI reread the Stock Option Plan - Appears Company already issued 4.9M options, and there is another 5.5M they intend to issue in future to employees.
ReplyDeleteThe BOD determined that the option prices when granted to employees, can't be less than the market trading price prior to grant. Doesn't sound like they issuing $2/ options, and trying to keep options at market level.
Yes, I think you're right. And sorry for the slow reply. I've been loafing!!
DeleteFinally found you guys! Thanks for setting this up. Will be following along daily, posting occasionally if I have something to add. Just got home from a week in beautiful Vancouver, can't wait to go back ;)
ReplyDelete-nferna (iHub)
Super. Great to have you here!!!! Thanks for joining us, you will not be censored here.
DeleteThis is from Lunacy: (originally posted on DieHub.
ReplyDelete"Presentation at 54th ERA June 3-6, Madrid: Steroid-sparing efficacy of voclosporin in active LN...James Tumlin, Chattanooga, U.S.A."
I know that the AURORA trial has no planned interim analyses and that the data is blinded to completion, but does anyone know if they have a Data Safety Monitoring Board? I assume that they do, but it has not been stated anywhere (to my knowledge). I emailed the company last week about this but have not heard back. Is it possible that if the Ph2 results are replicated that a DSMB would stop the trial early?
ReplyDeleteAlternatively, do you think that the regulatory agencies have insisted on a certain number of patients if they are going to accept a single Ph3 trial (and thus no interim analysis because they intend to complete all 324 patients anyway)?
Thanks!
You raise an important issue. It was my understanding that an "unblinded" third party is always watching the results; this would in fact be the only way to terminate a trial either because of unacceptably poor or, alternatively, extremely good results in the experimental group that establish efficacy. Both could be unethical for different reasons; the former is obvious, but the latter less so. A "good" result could be unethical because you can establish that it is unethical to withhold the treatment from the control group, this because of the statistical certainty of a positive income. All that said, I would defer to someone who is expert in these trials.
DeleteKind regards to all,
TC
Received a reply from IR. They confirmed that there is a DSMB, but decline to disclose when they are meeting.
DeleteThanks for sharing that Neil. Here's at link on Data Safety Monitoring Boards (DSMB) - https://www.nidcr.nih.gov/Research/ToolsforResearchers/Toolkit/DSMBGuidelines.htm
DeleteCheers,
TC