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Roller Coaster

You probably feel nauseous right now.


And you will likely feel this way for the next year, or longer, if you continue to hold AUPH. This is not a feel good stock you can just pat on the head every now and then and know that your equity is safe and steadily growing. Because it won't.

This is going to be a sickening roller coaster ride where up is down, and down is up...where we fall steeply on good clinical news, and shoot back up for no reason at all.  And if you're overweight  in AUPH, as many of us are, then nausea is your new normal.

Some of us idiots have done this before, making crazy bets on ARIA and not sleeping well for two years, making your wife think that ARIA is a secret lover, and not a biotech equity.  Let's be clear, this is not going to make sense and you WILL be sick.

It can not be otherwise if you have a big bet on AUPH.

So all that said, no whining when we plunge for no reason. You are going on this ride, like me, with eyes wide open.

And when we are sold at 50 or 60, you will swear to never do this again. Sadly, it's a pledge you probably won't keep - not after winning 5 or 10X.

GLTA

TC







Comments

  1. vidpok45October 22, 2017 at 6:46 PM

    TC, 2020 is right ahead. Compared to Ariad this has been a cakewalk so far. Even the ever obnoxious basher on ihub hasn't been able to come up with many negative comments except his constant whining when the sp declines. Those who dont have the patience to wait out another 30 months should get out because there is a very good chance we won't see much improvement in the sp for quite awhile. Most of us will be here to see the eventual buyout. That day will make this slightly unsettling journey seem like it never happened. I feel sorry for those who still don't understand that what is happening now is exactly the way they want it to play out, with a slow but steady transfer of shares from retailers to institutional investors. The great news on Friday will translate into a much higher buyout.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. moosedoggerOctober 23, 2017 at 5:29 AM

      TC, Vid: Appreciate your analysis, insights, commentary, etc. Aurinia is a really interesting situation that keeps getting better and better- very glad I got in despite being late to the game. You're probably both correct is saying this is a long haul with many more ups and downs to ride out. What prevents me from swing trading this is the fear that I could easily outsmart myself and get caught flatfooted by a surprise tender, and thereby miss the big reward which could come out of the blue at any time. One thing is clear to me is that the value just went up. It's probably too early to ask you this, but when you develop guesstimates of the potential value of the new indications, please post and thanks in advance. Hoping to meet you guys in Vancouver in the future. Best to you and yours. Thanks again for all your thoughts and work on Aurinia.

      Delete
    2. Trading CyclistOctober 23, 2017 at 5:36 AM

      Agreed. This is far less dramatic than with Ariad. I think that's in part because of the perspective I gained holding ARIA for so long. Hopefully the blog post here will be of some value to baby biotech newbies.

      Delete
  2. pwqOctober 23, 2017 at 5:50 AM

    Value added to this newbie. I'm not going anywhere, but I've been balking on adding the last 3 months.

    ReplyDelete
  3. vidpok45October 23, 2017 at 11:08 AM

    Moose, I believe that Restasis alone is almost a 2 billion dollar product. If Voclosporin is proven superior as we think it will be, there is no reason why it shouldn't capture half of that market. Another 1 billion added to the billions for LN not to mention the future value for the other indications should conservatively result in a buyout of at least 5 billion or 60 plus per share imo. 5 billion isn't much for most of the bp's especially if they realize a windfall after corporate tax reform. Waiting 2 to 3 years for this to happen will be well worth the wait. These games to suppress the sp are doing nothing to suppress my enthusiasm about what we own here. Good luck and I always appreciate reading your excellent posts, please continue to send them

    ReplyDelete
  4. keithOctober 24, 2017 at 10:12 AM

    One concern that has come up after more DD is the patent expiration. If this doesn't get approval til 2021 and the patent expires '24(?), doesn't that just leave them with 3 years of real ownershp? Won't doc's just start pushing the generic? Is there a way they can extend the patent?

    ReplyDelete
  5. TechreviewsandrumorsOctober 24, 2017 at 5:20 PM

    Could someone explain to me why its likely they'll get patent extension? That seems to be the only solid bear case I could find for the stock to explain why the shares are so undervalued, but I don't know enough about chemistry to be able to properly analyze it.

    I made a few models for LN sales, I haven't gotten around to adding the new indications to the model, but I get a fair present value of $20 on the low end and $35-40 near the high end. That could still be conservative since I haven't modeled in new indications but that isn't as important as figuring out the patent issues, because without the patent, the company is basically worthless. I have sales projected through 2027 to account for the patent being extended in my model.

    The science and management team look rock solid, and I have little doubts this will see approval. I haven't researched safety concerns yet but I anticipate doing so shortly, and buying more shares if I like what I find. I think the stock could pop more on the news of a patent extension than good pIII data imo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lunacy aka John GaltOctober 26, 2017 at 8:35 AM

      A good place to start would be the recent R&D presentation slides on their website, there's a few slides dedicated to IP & Patents.

      Delete
    2. UnknownOctober 28, 2017 at 5:36 AM

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4104891-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-patent-analysis-interview-coo

      Delete
    3. Lunacy aka John GaltNovember 16, 2017 at 2:28 PM


      Not that anyone here buys into the bear thesis of patent life issues for VoC, but VoC will almost certainly be granted 5 year market exclusivity regardless of the patent situation. Also, the patent situation isn't really even a situation. The patents will almost certainly be extended as well. Below are a couple good reads on Market Exclusivity.

      "As FDA explains: “Patents and exclusivity work in a similar fashion but are distinctly different from one another. Patents are granted by the patent and trademark office anywhere along the development lifeline of a drug and can encompass a wide range of claims. Exclusivity is exclusive marketing rights granted by the FDA upon approval of a drug and can run concurrently with a patent or not. Exclusivity is a statutory provision and is granted to an NDA [new drug application] applicant if statutory requirements are met. [See 21 C.F.R. 314.108.] Exclusivity was designed to promote a balance between new drug innovation and generic drug competition.”

      www.raps.org/Regulatory-Focus/News/2016/08/17/25632/Patents-vs-Market-Exclusivity-Why-Does-it-Take-so-Long-to-Bring-Generics-to-Market/

      https://hbr.org/2017/04/how-pharma-companies-game-the-system-to-keep-drugs-expensive

      www.pepperlaw.com/publications/fda-is-evolving-on-qualifications-for-new-chemical-entity-2016-09-07/

      R&D Day presentation discussing patents (pg. 31-38)

      https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a3077d926dfb28bbf79c6d9467050722/auriniapharma/db/239/935/presentation/R%26D+Day+Final.pdf

      Delete

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